Investing in deep tech “well.”
“Success in investing doesn’t come from buying good things but from buying things well. And that depends more on psychology and market cycles than on fundamentals.” — Howard Marks
We have seen scientific/engineering breakthroughs since the industrial age, but few offered truly compelling economic arguments in around the time they emerged. Highly path dependent culture/psychology and capital preserved incumbent practices at the detriment of emergent technologies. In the case of the steam engine, it took almost 100yrs to find its way into textile mills and metal foundries — a mighty long payback period. It brings home the point that great ideas work not because they’re great ideas, but because they’re great ideas introduced at the right time.
Today, thanks to maturation of foundational technologies (software, commodity hardware) over the past 20+ years, the time between invention and adoption has compressed almost 10-fold . There’s good evidence we have crossed the psychological chasm and today can buy deep tech well. I probed into this further during my recent presentation to UNSW.
You can access this deck here.
